You have built something. Maybe it took years. A podcast, a newsletter, a channel, a community. People show up because they trust your read on what happens next – in sport, in crypto, in politics, in culture.
And every time you publish a take, your audience argues about it. Some agree. Some push back. The debate runs for hours in the comments. It is some of the best signal in your niche.
You make nothing from it.
The take is free. The debate is free. The prediction implicit in everything you publish – free. The platform captures the engagement. The advertiser captures the attention. You get the follower count, and the follower count does not pay the rent.
This is the arrangement every creator in this space accepts. It is not inevitable.
What changes when the audience becomes the market
Halley is the prediction DEX – a non-custodial exchange on BNB Chain where anyone can trade what happens next, open their own market in about a minute, and keep 80% of its fees. Trading is free, positions are tokens in your own wallet, and the core contracts are immutable.
On Halley, the take becomes the market. You define the question – the one your audience is already arguing about. You set the outcomes. You set your resolution fee, between 1% and 10%. Your market goes live immediately. No registration. No application. No liquidity to put up.
The argument in the comments becomes the order book. The people who are sure it goes one way take a position. The people who are sure it goes the other way take the other side. They are on opposite ends of the same market, not against a platform taking the other side. You just opened the market.
When the event closes and the correct outcome is confirmed, you receive 80% of the resolution fee. On liquidity you never put up.
What the fee actually means – and why it is charged on the gain, not the face value
The resolution fee on Halley is charged on the settlement gain, not on the face value of the share. This is the detail that matters.
Every outcome share is worth $1 if it is the correct outcome and $0 if not. The market prices each outcome in real time. When the market settles, the fee applies only to the difference between what the correct outcome was priced at when the market closed and its full $1 redemption value.
If your audience priced the outcome at $0.20 at close, the gain for correct holders is $0.80. Your 5% fee applies to that $0.80 – a 4% effective rate, not 5%. If the outcome was priced at $0.60, the gain is $0.40, and the effective rate is 2%.
The markets where your read was most contrarian – the ones where you called something the rest of the world did not see coming – pay you the most. Because the surprise is the information. And information value is what the fee is priced on.
Three personas, one structure
The sport analyst. A weekly prediction column, 40,000 subscribers, half of whom disagree with the call every week. On Halley, that disagreement becomes a market. The column becomes the resolution criteria. The argument in the replies becomes the order book. The analyst keeps 80% of the resolution fee on a market their audience was going to have anyway.
The crypto KOL. Calls that move prices, a community that acts on the thesis. On Halley, the thesis becomes a multi-outcome market – which chain leads DEX volume, which token flips which, which narrative plays out. The community takes positions on the call. The creator earns from the resolution.
The pop culture commentator. Predictions about awards, releases, announcements. An audience that is always right about half the time and wrong about the other half. On Halley, that is a functional prediction market. The audience is the counterparty to itself. The creator earns from the settlement.
The structure is the same in all three cases. The creator does not need to be a quant or a protocol specialist. They need a crowd and a question.
What cold-start looks like when you already have the crowd
The honest problem with any open prediction market network is that a market with no participants is a dead page. Books are thin where no crowd has shown up yet.
On Halley, the market is opened by the person who already has the crowd. The audience and the market arrive together. The creator does not build the page and then hope people find it. They point the crowd at it – the same crowd that was already arguing about the answer.
The demand arrives with the supply. That is what makes the creator the solution to the cold-start problem, not a bystander to it.
How outcomes get resolved
When the event closes, independent Market Managers verify and announce the correct outcome. If they cannot reach a result, community resolution opens – community members can announce it themselves. The process runs in the open. The creator does not need to do anything after opening the market.
The code is on-chain
The contracts are deployed and audited on BNB Smart Chain. The shares are ERC-1155 tokens in each participant’s own wallet from the moment their order fills.
Trust the chain. Not us.
Point your crowd at a market. Keep 80%.
Make a market.
Predict the return.
